Thursday, October 23, 2008

Hmmm: My Map

With about a week and a half to go before the election this is how I currently see the electoral map playing out: Obama 329 electoral, McCain 209.


Some thoughts on a few swing states…
  • Nevada: Obama will run strong in pro-Union Las Vegas and the surrounding suburbs based primarily on his support for the Union backed card-check system.
  • Colorado – On the heels of a strong get out the vote effort Obama will pull out an impressive win for a state that hasn't been blue since '92.
  • New Mexico – Same deal as CO.
  • Missouri – Obama pulled 100,000 people at a rally in St. Louis last week. A few days later McCain pulled 2,000 at a town hall gathering in a St. Louis suburb. The momentum and enthusiasm trends toward Obama in this typically red state.
  • Indiana – No upset here. The demographics won’t work in Obama’s favor.
  • West Virginia – Fuggetaboutit. The red and pink necks in Appalachia will go strongly for McCain.
  • Pennsylvania – Despite McCain’s last minute Hail Mary for PA Obama will eke out a victory based on a solid showing in the Philadelphia area and the eastern part of the state.
  • Virginia – Will go blue for the first time since 1964 based on a solid showing in “unreal” Northern VA.
  • Ohio – Appalachia and blue collar…not a winning combo. Obama will lose this one.
  • Florida – Obama will pull it out in Florida largely based on disenchantment with McCain‘s pick of Palin and an uptick of support from military types following Powell’s endorsement.
  • North Carolina – A gallant effort on Obama’s part and a close close but Obama will lose NC by a hair.

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